Cities are the wave of the future—and they won’t be Manila

Cities are the wave of the future—and they won’t be Manila

Why the key to PH’s sustained growth may lie outside the metro

The whole world is in the midst of a historic shift. According to a report by the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), for the first time ever in 2008, more than half of the world’s population was living in towns and cities. This number has continued to swell, and the UNFPA estimates that close to 5 billion people will be living in urban areas by 2030.

The case for why cities will play a monumental role in 21^st century global development—from social, economic, and cultural standpoints—has been well discussed and documented. This has led to increased scrutiny of the world’s cities to see if they can handle the influx. 

 

For instance, GMA News TV’s “Ang Pinaka” aired a feature a few months back on the most livable cities in the Philippines, tapping experts such as urban planner Felino Palafox as panelists. To come up with their top ten cities, the panel took into consideration ten criteria, including traffic management, safety, accessibility of transportation, environmental efforts, and having well-planned communities.

  

Starting off that list at no. 10 was the city of Manila. And while our capital city is certainly one of the country’s cultural, political and business epicenters (other “most livable” lists have ranked Manila even higher), it is arguably lacking in several of the “Ang Pinaka” list’s criteria. Traffic, pollution and flooding are perennial problems, and these are major factors to consider in city livability.

Even Palafox said that "Manila needs urban-renewal or urban acupuncture. It's really deteriorated. The flooding is still there, the garbage. There's no coordination." 

But Manila is not a solitary case. Metro Manila, in general, is suffering from the effects of heavy urbanization. As the most populous metropolitan area in the Philippines (and 11^th most populous in the world), its carrying capacity is about to be reached—as shown by ever-worsening traffic, flooding and informal settler problems.

Granted, Metro Manila is one of the country’s biggest growth drivers, making it a highly desirable location for dwellers and workers. It is responsible for 36% of the country’s gross regional domestic product (GRDP). But as the area becomes increasingly saturated, it becomes clear that for the country to thrive and sustain its remarkable growth in the decades to come, we must look to cities outside the metro.

Aside from latching on to already-established cities like Cebu and Davao, this means organically developing rural areas into urban centers over time, or building new “cities” from scratch and accelerating their growth, similar to what has been done with Bonifacio Global City.

And there is a huge potential to do this. While Metro Manila contributes 36% to the GRDP, its land area, which at 639 sq km, represents just a little more than 0.2% of the country’s total land area. Even the Greater Manila Area, which covers the area surrounding Metro Manila and accounts for 62% of our GRDP, covers less than 2% of the country’s total land area. 

Almost all economic activity and wealth are concentrated in megacities like Metro Manila with no spillover of benefits to neighboring regions. Yet it is clear that the staggering area of non-metropolitan land in the country is just out there, waiting to be tapped and developed!

It is definitely hard not to get excited about the prospect of seeing new metropolises around the archipelago in the future, cities that are comparable in size and function as Manila, but cleaner, more modern, better planned and more efficiently utilized. It will be a game-changer for the country.

But if want to be able to meet the demand for more cities, we need to act fast. Because the UN predicts that by 2030 the country’s population will reach 130 million. The Greater Manila Area will be accommodating 40 million people. Metro Central Luzon’s population will double to 10.25 million, while the whole of Region 3 will hit 20 million. Similar rises are expected for other regions.

This will be in 2030—which is just 17 years from now.

Without a doubt, the world is fast urbanizing and globalizing, and so are we. We need to build new cities, new livelihoods, and new modes of transport—and we need to do it outside Metro Manila.